Trump's Actual Chances Of Winning In 2024
It seems safe to say that the 2020 presidential election did not turn out the way that President Donald Trump wanted. Since Election Day, Trump has spent his days tweeting about how he didn't actually lose the election, and if he did, it's because it was "rigged." Trump has attempted to mount legal challenges in states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, while Trump's personal lawyer (and the last person in the world to discover Borat) Rudy Giuliani has spent his days claiming without evidence that the election was marred by fraud.
Trump's tactics are unlikely to earn him any new supporters, nor are they likely to actually change the outcome of the election. President-elect Joe Biden will take the oath of office on Jan. 20, 2021, and his administration will begin. However, since Trump has only served one term, it is possible for him to run again in 2024. This possibility is not lost on No. 45, who, according to The New York Times, is considering announcing another run upon leaving the White House in January 2021.
If Trump did announce a candidacy for 2024, would he actually stand a chance of winning? Here's what political and corporate advisor Dr. Reneé Carr and other analysts had to say about it.
With Donald Trump involved, anything could happen
Only one president, Grover Cleveland, has been voted out of office and then gone on to serve another term, but Dr. Reneé Carr told The List that President Donald Trump may have a chance of becoming the second. "Trump will continue to stoke the emotions and energy of his loyal voter base through claims of election fraud," Carr said, adding that repeating claims of a stolen election could be effective. "By his continued accusations of the election being 'stolen' from him, this prevents psychological closure of the election for both himself and those who voted for him," Carr explained, saying it could "intensify his voters' loyalty."
That being said, the next four years are an open book, and the country has no idea what the political climate of 2024 might look like. Carr projected that "if President-elect Biden can provide significant economic recovery to America — especially to families of auto industry workers and other blue-collar occupations — as well as provide meaningful and immediate tax cuts for small businesses" it could "greatly decrease Trump's chances of being reelected." If Americans have learned anything over the course of Trump's presidency, it's to expect the unexpected.
Donald Trump could run as a third-party candidate in 2024
Whether or not Donald Trump's hypothetical third run for president is successful or not, the very idea still presents challenges to his party. Writing for Newsweek, Joshua Spivak noted that while others have tried to run for president again after losing as the incumbent, only one, Grover Cleveland, has been successful. Oftentimes, they end up running as third party candidates, splitting the votes for their former party, Spivak noted.
In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt lost the Republican nomination to sitting-President William Taft. Roosevelt ran under the Progressive Party instead, soundly defeating Taft in both the popular vote and Electoral College, but still losing to the Democratic candidate, Woodrow Wilson, according to Spivak's op-ed in Newsweek. Martin Van Buren reportedly tried a similar tactic in 1848, running as a candidate for the Free Soil Party, which helped carry Whig Party candidate Zachary Taylor into the White House.
The fear is the same for Republicans if Trump attempts another run in 2024. There are certainly other Republican candidates who are already eying the opportunity to run in the next election, and Trump would still have to campaign against them in the primary. If he did lose the primary and chose to run as a third-party candidate, whether as a Libertarian or something else, the fear for Republicans is that his supporters will still vote for him over the Republican nominee, essentially handing the election to the Democrats.
Another Donald Trump run could 'cast a shadow' over the primary
If Donald Trump chooses to run for president again, and makes that declaration years in advance, it could freeze the Republican primary from happening in any meaningful way. Alex Isenstadt of Politico noted that Trump's "flirtation with a 2024 bid ensures he'll remain the dominant force in the party and cast a shadow over anyone looking to succeed him." While not an official rule, the norm in modern party politics is to support the incumbent candidate if they choose to run for another term, especially when that candidate is the sitting president. For example, in 2020, there was no Republican incumbent in the White House to challenge Trump before he accepted the party's nomination.
Even if Republican candidates did attempt a run against Trump in 2024, it may be difficult to distinguish themselves and build a network of donors to stage an effective run. As Republican Sen. Marco Rubio (pictured right) told Fox News, "If [Trump] runs in 2024, he'll certainly be the front-runner and will probably be the nominee."
It's impossible to predict what's going to happen within the next four years, but one this is for sure: truly anything could happen.